With great fanfare, a small restaurant recently opened in Bay City. It is completely devoted to seafood dishes, and customers have already lined up to try its new offerings. The proprietor claims that his restaurant is ‘the only restaurant in town’ that offers specialty seafood dishes and is ‘making a big splash’. The proprietor’s sole conclusion is that the 30 percent increase in seafood consumption in Bay City is directly related to the opening of his restaurant. However, a closer inspection of city demographics and economic conditions suggests that this increase in seafood consumption may be due to other factors such as a growing economy, new restaurants opening in Bay City, and the opening of a new Wal-Mart.

The proprietor’s statements regarding the types of families in Bay City are misleading. He could be referring to a demographic trend where married couples who both work outside their homes are raising children. These types of families may eat out more, and since many restaurants now offer children’s menus, these families may opt to have their children eat these. The Wal-Mart opening in Bay City may be a factor as well. Wal-Mart is one of the largest grocery store chains in the United States and, with its convenient locations and low prices, has been attracting many shoppers. The Wal-Mart in Bay City is very large, and customers may be drawn to the large variety of seafood items for sale. Again, this could also be a factor driving the new Captain Seafood restaurant to the city.

The increase in seafood consumption in Bay City could be the result of both economic conditions and the opening of restaurants. The proprietor implies that restaurant-goers in Bay City are wealthier than in years past because, in the five years since he opened his restaurant, the city’s economy has thrived. However, this is not the case. Over the course of the past five years, the economy in Bay City has grown by 12.7 percent. In contrast, from 2000 to 2010, the economy of the United States grew 42 percent. The disparity between the national and city-level economies is likely due to a large concentration of jobs in the energy sector in Bay City. The proprietor may be correct that the restaurant is successful because people are eating out more, but the city’s economic boom alone cannot explain this increase in seafood consumption. The Wal-Mart in Bay City is likely a factor in the increase in seafood consumption.

The only evidence provided by the restaurant owner to support his argument is a recent sales study. It does not provide much insight into the type of families that eat in Bay City or the type of customers that frequent his restaurant. If the restaurant owner is targeting families with children, he may not need to advertise to children or cater to children’s tastes. Instead, he may focus on advertising the restaurant to the older adult population. Since families with two working adults usually eat out more often than families with only one working adult, the patrons at the new Captain Seafood restaurant may be primarily two-income families. The proprietor’s statements regarding the national and city-level economies are misleading as well. The Wal-Mart in Bay City is, in fact, in Bay City, not Bay City, Michigan, a city in another state. Furthermore, the national and city-level economies do not match exactly. The economy of Bay City, Michigan, is far different from the one of Detroit, Michigan, yet the proprietor’s statements suggest that businesses in both cities are experiencing similar economic conditions.

The bottom line is that the restaurant owner has presented evidence only to support his conclusion. His statements about the two-income families in Bay City, the economic conditions of Bay City, and the national and city-level economies do not directly support his claim that the opening of his restaurant has led to an increase in seafood consumption in Bay City.