A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The speaker claims that consuming salicylates will lead to fewer headaches in the future. The speaker provides anecdotal evidence supporting this claim by citing a twenty-year study that “discovered” that food-processing companies will soon add salicylates as flavor enhancers. The speaker then states that this discovery will lead to fewer headaches in the future as more people consume salicylate-rich foods. However, this statement is highly conditional and appears to depend on various unstated assumptions.
The first of these questions is whether or not food-processing companies are currently aware of the existence of salicylates. Food companies have been adding preservatives to foods for thousands of years, but it is unlikely that these companies would have known of the existence of salicylates as a preservative. Salicylates are naturally occurring compounds found in various plants, including apples, beets, celery, and berries, among others. Salicylates are particularly abundant in celery, which is not surprising since celery is used as a flavoring agent in many foods. However, it is unlikely that food-processing companies would have known about the presence of salicylates in celery. Likewise, if food-processing companies only began using salicylates as preservatives in recent years, it is unlikely that they would have discovered them. Thus, the twenty-year study cited by the speaker should explain why food companies are now adding salicylates to their foods, not why food-processing companies discovered the use of salicylates in flavoring foods.
The second of these questions is whether or not food-processing companies plan to add salicylates as flavoring agents shortly. If the speaker is correct, then an increase in the availability of salicylates in foods will lead to a decrease in headaches. However, this claim assumes that food-processing companies will continue to add salicylates to foods. In turn, an increase in the availability of salicylates will lead to a decrease in headaches. Evidence for this prediction could easily be found by examining the subjects of the twenty-year study. If, as the speaker claims, the study initially examined only residents of Mentia who suffered from frequent headaches, then the participants should have already begun experiencing fewer headaches due to consuming foods containing salicylates. However, since most residents of Mentia do not suffer from frequent headaches, it is unlikely that increasing the availability of salicylates in foods would lead to a decline in the number of headaches experienced by these people. Therefore, the twenty-year study cited by the speaker is unlikely to provide any evidence for or against the prediction that increasing the availability of salicylates in foods will lead to a decrease in the number of headaches experienced by residents of Mentia.
A third question to consider when evaluating the claim made by the speaker is whether or not salicylates reduce the frequency of headaches. The speaker’s twenty-year study conducted in Mentia discovered that food-processing companies plan to add salicylates as flavoring agents. Therefore, the researchers who performed the analysis could have investigated whether or not consuming foods containing salicylates reduces the frequency of headaches. If, as theorized by the survey, ingesting foods containing salicylates minimizes the frequency of headaches, then the study would provide some evidence for the speaker’s prediction. However, if consuming foods containing salicylates do not affect the frequency of headaches, then the study would provide no support for this claim.
The final question to consider when evaluating the prediction made by the speaker is whether or not people consume salicylates as flavoring agents. If, as claimed by the speaker, the people of Mentia do not currently consume foods containing salicylates, then introducing food containing salicylates to their diets is unlikely to affect the number of headaches. On the other hand, the inhabitants of Mentia consume foods containing salicylates, then introducing additional foods containing salicylates to their diets should lead to fewer headaches. Therefore, the introduction of foods that currently contain salicylates may decrease the number of headaches experienced by the inhabitants of Mentia. However, it is also possible that the residents of Mentia do not consume foods containing salicylates. The introduction of additional foods containing salicylates to their diets will not lead to a decline in the number of headaches experienced by these people. Therefore, conclusive evidence for or against the prediction made by the speaker can only be found by examining whether the consumption of foods containing salicylates leads to a decrease in the number of headaches suffered by the inhabitants of Mentia.