History can help us understand the present and, thus, help us make better decisions today. However, this claim is overly simplistic. While it is no doubt true that history cannot aid in the present, as humans, we have the capacity to learn from past events and use them to make better decisions. For instance, such an event as the Great Depression, which historians know occurred long ago, can be used to inform modern economic policy. The facts and analyses that economists have discovered during that time have undoubtedly aided in the creation of policies that have helped millions of people during difficult times

The most obvious example that historians use to illustrate their point is the hindsight bias. Anyone who has watched a rerun of the television series ’24’ can fully attest to this. The show uses time as a plot device to show viewers what the future will look like. The premise of the show is that Jack Bauer, a counter-terrorist agent, is racing against the clock to prevent a terrorist plot before it is too late. While there is nothing inherently wrong with the show, it relies on a flawed premise. It is unrealistic to think that a television character can go back in time and prevent a bombing that has already occurred. However, the show’s creators do make a valid point: According to the hindsight bias, what is obvious after the fact is almost impossible to predict. While it is impossible to predict the future, it is possible to learn from the past

Although we cannot predict the future, we can look back with the benefit of time and experience and make connections between past events and current events. For example, consider natural disasters like earthquakes or hurricanes. Although these events are unpredictable, a historian can look back at similar natural disasters and predict with a high degree of accuracy what may happen. For example, rather than forecasting the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Katrina’s chief economist, John Izzo, looked at historical hurricane damage and predicted the damage that would come from the storm. Because he was correct in his predictions, he was able to prepare New Orleans residents for the storm. Likewise, the historian who studied the 1906 San Francisco earthquake was able to predict with considerable accuracy what may happen in 1906. Knowing about the past is a crucial part of predicting the present

Another way in which historians have enhanced our ability to make smart decisions today is by studying the history of economics. Economics is a field of study that deals with economic decisions and consumption. The field has a rich history of thought, which includes the works of Adam Smith, the founder of modern economics. Smith’s work, ‘s Theory of Moral Sentiments,’ was published in 1759. In that work, he theorized that self-interest was a driving factor behind people’s economic actions. The theory of rational self-interest that Smith advanced is the basis for most modern economic thinking. In fact, it was Adam Smith’s ideas that were so influential that in 1976, the economist John Maynard Keynes used Smith’s work as the basis for his own theory of economics, the Keynesian Model. The theories created by these two men have helped millions of people make better economic decisions. An understanding of the history of economics helps us make better decisions today as well

While it is impossible to predict the future, we can learn a lot from the past. By studying history, we can prepare for the future and make better decisions today.