The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava. “The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.”

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

“The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Calatrava is a multicultural city in the southern part of Spain with around 30,000 inhabitants. As a city with high levels of immigration, the birth rate of this city has experienced a steady decline over the past 10 years. The birth rate for Calatrava has declined by 30% since 2006, from 4.7 births per 1,000 inhabitants to 3.5. This decline was reflected in a decrease in students in the public school system, where enrollment fell from 4,800 in 2006 to 3,900 in 2015. This caused a reduction in the budget for public schools, from 24.2 million euros in 2006 to 22.7 million euros in 2015. In response to the decline in children in the public school system, the city council has recommended reducing funding for education by 6 million euros and cutting the funding of athletic fields and recreational centers by 25 million euros.

A decline in students may lead to a decrease in the budget for public schools and sports and recreation. However, a decrease in the number of students would not necessarily mean a decline in adults using city facilities and programs. Many adults do not enroll their children in public schools, and many parents choose private schools over public schools because of the differing philosophies and curriculums and the quality of education. In addition, the declining birth rate might increase the population of senior citizens who would not usually use recreational centers or sports fields. Therefore, to create a ten-year budget that considers the demographics of Calatrava, the city’s population should be estimated and projected. The projected population, and changes in birth rates, should be considered in projections of how many people will use city facilities. Since a decrease in births does not always lead to a decline in adults using city facilities, the budget for recreation should be included in the budget. Still, changes to public school funding are not necessary.