The following appeared as part of an article in a health club trade publication:

“After experiencing a decline in usage by its members, Healthy Heart fitness center built an indoor pool. Since usage did not increase significantly, it appears that health club managers should adopt another approach—lowering membership fees rather than installing expensive new features.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

The argument fails because it relies on faulty assumptions that are unsupported by the evidence

The author of the statement suggests that health club managers should lower their membership fees and that doing so would increase usage. Certainly, the health club industry has seen its share of ups and downs, and competition is fierce. However, the article provides no evidence to suggest that lower fees alone will entice people to join. In fact, the author provides anecdotal accounts from a few members, implying that usage did decline. The article then argues that management should install a new pool, even though no increase in usage resulted after the new pool was built. This line of reasoning is flawed because data in the article suggest that most members did not use the pool, nor did they express a desire to do so. The only data regarding new pool users is anecdotal. There is no quantitative data, only anecdotal observations, to support the assumption that installing a new pool alone will increase usage. Moreover, the article does not account for the fact that some members may have joined because they saw the new pool as a nice amenity. Therefore, while management may lower fees, it would be an unwise decision to build the new pool without considering other options first

The article presents a somewhat dismal picture of Healthy Heart, a club that has existed for more than 25 years. The trend of declining usage is especially troubling because, according to the article, memberships are expensive: $120 a month for a single person, $120 a month for a family. The most expensive membership fee for an urban area is $360 a month. The article notes that Healthy Heart has enjoyed a steady membership base. However, given these fees, membership renewal rates must be low. Perhaps the club should rethink its pricing strategy. This article provides some interesting data related to usage. When asked about her reasons for joining, one club member stated, ‘At first, I didn’t use the pool or the exercise equipment; I just used the locker room.’ Another member said, ‘It’s the camaraderie and fitness that keeps me coming back.’ Both of these women joined Healthy Heart because they wanted to lose weight. If membership renewal rates were higher, and more women joined to lose weight, then perhaps lowered fees would be welcomed. The article indicates that management has shortened the workout sessions from 45 minutes to 30 minutes, and that shorter sessions seem to be working. However, management may have simply cut the duration of each session in half. If the sessions are shorter, then members may exercise less, but pay less. Another theory to consider is that management may have lowered membership prices to attract new members. Consequently, members may have joined because of price, and not because they were interested in exercising

Finally, the article asserts that Healthy Heart installed a new pool without studying the effect on usage. One would expect that management would analyze usage before and after the pool was installed, in order to determine whether it was a success. The article provides no information to suggest that usage increased, so management made a costly mistake by installing the new pool without analyzing usage. It is irresponsible to conclude that Healthy Heart managers should lower fees and install a new pool without examining usage data.

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