The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper:

“Hippocrene Plumbing Supply recently opened a wholesale outlet in the location once occupied by the Cumquat Café. Hippocrene has apparently been quite successful there because it is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city. But the Cumquat Café, one year after moving to its new location, has seen its volume of business drop somewhat from the previous year’s. Clearly, the former site was the better business location, and the Cumquat Café has made a mistake in moving to its new address.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

That the Cumquat Café has made a mistake in moving to a new location’ may be a reasonable conclusion to draw from looking at the numbers, but there are likely deeper issues at play here. First, let us examine why Hippocrene may have made the move to a new location. The general manager believes that the location of the Cumquat Café was ‘clearly’ the better business location. This doesn’t appear to have much evidence to support such a claim, since both businesses probably saw some benefit in moving to the new location. The larger outlet, in a larger metropolitan area, likely offered more opportunities for growth and expansion. In addition, the Cumquat Café may have simply been unable to establish the clientele required to make it profitable. If this is true, then moving to a different location may have indeed been a smart move for the business. On the other hand, the Cumquat Café may have simply been unable to take advantage of the opportunities it saw in the new location. For example, if the new location offered more parking and the neighborhood was more affluent, then the Cumquat Café may have become convinced that people in that area were better customers. The general manager also implies that the Cumquat Café did not change its business strategy, but simply moved to a better location. Yet, businesses often change strategies based on location. If a business finds that customers in one neighborhood eat out more often than customers in another, then the business may alter its marketing plans accordingly. Furthermore, a business strategy is not set in stone. If the Cumquat Café decided that its strategy needed to be altered, then moving to a new location may have been an effective course of action. The general manager also says that the Cumquat Café has made a mistake in moving to its new address. Again, this assertion may be reasonable; however, there may not be much evidence for such a claim. If the Cumquat Café had simply moved into an area that had better prospects for growth, then moving to the new location may have been a good idea. On the other hand, if the Cumquat Café had moved into an area that was experiencing a decline in business, then it may have made a bad decision. The Cumquat Café may have assumed that business at the new location would continue to grow, but may have misread the trends in the area. Finally, the general manager states that ‘the former site was the better business location.’ This may be true, but it may have been only temporary. The Cumquat Café could have been in a better business location simply because of its location. When a business moves, its location may become less desirable. When the Cumquat Café, for example, opened its new store, it may have been located in a more upscale neighborhood. Over time, however, that neighborhood may have declined. The Cumquat Café may have moved again simply because it had grown tired of its old location. If, however, the new location was a better one, then it may have been a mistake to move again

In any argument, there are likely to be some assumptions made that affect the argument. In this case, the assumptions made about the Cumquat Café’s strategy in moving to a new location may not be accurate. In addition, the assumptions made about the Cumquat Café’s growth in its new home may be incorrect. Thus, even if the Cumquat Café did make an error in moving to a new location, its mistake may not have been as serious as the manager suggests.

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