The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.” On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

“On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

The writer of the letter makes a very valid point, in that limiting the number of mopeds available for rent would decrease the number of moped-related accidents. However, he fails to address a few other factors that would likely have a significant effect on the amount of moped-related accidents on the island. The residents on the island are already aware of the dangers of mopeds, and most have purchased helmets that they use while riding. Additionally, the local police regularly patrol the roads, which could help prevent accidents from occurring. For this reason, it does not seem likely that the number of accidents will be significantly affected by the limit, possibly because the police will crack down on anyone breaking the rules.

If there is a decrease in the number of accidents, however, then the residents of the island would no longer feel safe riding mopeds, as they would no longer feel secure about their abilities. The residents of Seaville, on the other hand, felt safe riding mopeds because they felt confident that the police would take action against anyone breaking the law. Therefore, it is likely that the number of accidents on the island would increase if the limit was enforced, because while the police may enforce the law, they will not actively enforce it. In addition, since the island is so small, it will probably only take one or two people to break the rules to negate any decrease in the total number of accidents. Therefore, the recommendation is unlikely to succeed, as it would have a negative effect on the safety of the island’s residents.

In conclusion, it is hoped that the letter writer has considered other factors that would affect the amount of moped-related accidents on Balmer Island if the limit were enforced. He may have considered how many people on the island ride mopeds, and how many licenses the moped rental companies on the island have. Additionally, the letter writer should clarify what actions the police will take to enforce the limit, and how the number of accidents will change if the limit is enforced.