The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.
“To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham’s enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.”
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
I believe that the proposal to build new dormitories would be detrimental to the university. The projected increase in enrollment over 50 years is speculative and, even if accurate, is likely to occur at a time when the town will be experiencing increased suburbanization. Thus, building new dormitories would be an unwise investment at this time.’In this memo, the Director of Student Housing cites a number of reasons why the existing college dormitories are inadequate. He is correct that the average rent in town has increased significantly, but has occurred so slowly that many students have been able to absorb these increases without suffering financially. Furthermore, the increase in student enrollment over the next 50 years is speculative. While it’s possible that this growth rate will be accurate, the Director should have provided evidence to justify this assumption. While there may be a strong correlation between enrollment and housing, other factors such as increasing cost and decreasing availability of housing, as well as changes in housing trends, such as increased suburbanization, must also be taken into consideration.
Some of these factors are already considered by the Director, who notes that the town is experiencing a period of increased suburbanization. He mentions this in passing, but does not elaborate much. As the population continues to grow in suburban areas, it is likely that the demand for housing will increase as well. It is reasonable to assume that as more people move to these outlying areas, the demand for housing in the center of town will decrease, which is particularly true in towns with a population of less than 10,000. This decline, coupled with the increased cost of housing, might explain the increases in rent that were included in the argument. On the other hand, an increase in suburbanization might also increase the housing supply in the area, which would make housing more affordable. If this comes to pass, the increase in rent might be offset by a decrease in housing demand.
The Director also observes that increased enrollment would likely occur at a time when the town is experiencing increased suburbanization. The Director should have provided evidence of this increase in suburbanization, such as a map or chart that depicts this trend. This would probably have been better evidence than assuming it will occur based on current trends, since the trends might change in the future. Furthermore, even if the increase in suburbanization were to occur, it might not affect housing demand. As more people move to these outlying areas, they may still prefer to live in town, particularly if they like the convenience that living in town provides. Therefore, the increase in suburbanization might not affect housing demand in the same way that an increase in the number of students might.
Furthermore, the increase in enrollment over 50 years might be due to changes in housing trends that render the Director’s projections inaccurate. For example, if the demographics of the town changed so that fewer students lived in the area and, instead, more students moved to town from other areas, the demand for housing would be affected. This would likely decrease the cost of housing, making housing more affordable for students. Furthermore, these students would likely have jobs, enabling them to afford housing without incurring additional expenses. Therefore, a decrease in the number of students may actually decrease the demand for housing, making housing more affordable.
The Director’s memo does contain other useful information, including statistics on the number of students currently living off campus and on the average rent in the area. The memo also provides information about the number of students enrolled over the past 10 years. This information supports the conclusion that the current number of students living off campus is fewer than the number of students living on campus. However, it does not provide enough information with which to evaluate whether the Director’s projections are accurate. Therefore, the Director should have provided more detailed information on the number of students enrolled over the past 10 years. This information would have been useful in evaluating whether the projected increase in the number of students is accurate.
For example, if the Director had provided the number of students living off campus and on the average rent for the last 10 years, this information could have helped to determine whether the number of students who currently live off campus is declining, increasing, or staying the same. However, the Director does not provide this information. Therefore, it is impossible to determine whether the number of students living off campus is increasing or decreasing. On the other hand, the Director does provide information on the projected number of students for the next 50 years. This information suggests that the projected number of students living off campus is declining, which is helpful information, since the number of students living off campus affects the cost of housing for them. If the number of students living off campus is declining, the cost of housing will be less, making housing more affordable. Furthermore, decreasing the number of students living off campus could also affect housing demand. If fewer students live off campus, then the demand for housing will be less, making housing more affordable.
The information contained in the memo suggests that it is premature to build more dormitories. This conclusion is based on the assumption that the increase in enrollment over the next 50 years will occur, but this information is not provided. Furthermore, the projected increase in suburbanization is speculative. Until the Director provides more evidence, it is impossible to determine whether either the increase in enrollment over the next 50 years or the suburbanization will affect the college’s decision to build more dormitories.