The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men’s clothing.
“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. This demand and the overall increase in clothing prices will make Sartorian’s alpaca overcoats more profitable than ever before.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The argument relies on several assumptions, none of them unlikely, and all of them somewhat surprising. The vice president of Sartorian assumes that the alpaca overcoat is his product’s only competitor. While other companies might offer an alpaca coat, none are likely to have the same brand identity or customer base. Sartorian also assumes that, because customers were disappointed with the alpaca overcoat, they are eager to see it returned to production. The vice president of Sartorian has no way of knowing if customers were disappointed with the coat or because of the price, although at this point it is unlikely that he would be able to justify the high price of the coat to the customers. Finally, Sartorian assumes that the increased price of an alpaca coat will more than offset its increased production costs. While this may be true, Sartorian does not explain how this will occur, and it would appear that the company would bear the brunt of the increased cost. The vice president seems to assume that consumers will flock to his product when it is no longer produced by his competitors. While it is certain that consumers have an interest in new clothing, there is a danger that Sartorian’s product will underperform in the eyes of consumers because of its having become a ‘sleeper’ product.
The primary source of assumptions in the argument is the phrase ‘five years ago,’ which is used by Sartorian to indicate a time when his company faced some difficulty. Sartorian does not say how the company became unable to provide a high-quality product, or even if the company had changed its suppliers. If the company did, however, it may have had a change in management, which could have adversely affected the quality of the product. Sartorian also does not explain how the company became unable to obtain reliable supplies of high-quality wool. If this was due to the wool industry in a recession, the company could rely on increased consumer confidence to buy its products. Sartorian’s company also does not explain how or why its competitors have not introduced an alpaca coat to compete with it. Perhaps his competitors are unwilling to take on the cost of producing the coat, or they do not see any profit in competing with Sartorian. Assuming that competitors have ignored the alpaca coat, Sartorian is correct that customers will be eager to buy his product, although he has no means to know how many customers will be willing to buy his product.