The memo states that a new housing development will be built in the northeastern United States, and that the building boom will last for several more years. The memo further states that the region is experiencing 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and that climate forecasters predict this weather pattern will continue for several more years. The memo concludes that this increase in demand for heating oil will necessitate increased deliveries by the company. We must first examine why the region is experiencing 90 days with below-normal temperatures. While there are several possible causes, it is clear that given global warming, it is only a matter of time before such cold spells occur more frequently. Global warming is caused by the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil. These gases cause the rise in atmospheric temperatures and, in turn, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The melting of the ice caps causes sea level to rise, which in turn displaces coastal communities. Such climate changes affect weather patterns all over the world, but the most dramatic effects are felt in the norther latitudes. For example, a 2014 study in the journal Nature found that polar regions were experiencing the warming fastest, with Greenland seeing temperatures 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average. This has caused the glaciers in Greenland to release large amounts of freshwater into the ocean, which in turn has altered weather patterns around the world. Although this 2014 study deals with Greenland, it continues the body of evidence suggesting that the Arctic is becoming warmer. As a result, weather patterns in North America and Europe are changing, resulting in extended periods of cold and snow. This has already caused residents of the northeastern United States to suffer through long winters with temperatures as low as -45 degrees Fahrenheit. Given these frigid temperatures, it is reasonable to assume that the heating oil demand will rise, and it will continue to climb for several years. The company’s predictions, however, are questionable. If temperatures continue to fall, the demand for heating oil will rise even more. While the company may forecast increasing demand, it is more likely that they will continue to deliver the same number of gallons as last year. The increase in demand, if it occurs, would most likely be the result of increased population. This increase in population would necessitate more homes being built, and these homes would be heated by heating oil.

Furthermore, the climate forecasters cited by the memo did not explicitly state that the region will experience 90 days with below-normal temperatures in the next few years. It is possible that a longer period of time will be necessary before the below-normal temperatures become more frequent. A forecast that indicates a 10% increase in below-normal temperatures over the next several years would be more accurate. The prediction that the increase in heating oil demand will continue for several years is also questionable. While the increase in demand is almost a certainty, it is uncertain whether the demand for heating oil will continue to increase at a constant rate. Global warming may alter the weather patterns, causing colder winters and less snow. A decrease in the demand for heating oil may be possible. While these factors suggest that the company’s prediction is questionable, there are other factors that argue in favor of it. For example, if global warming continues, it is likely that the demand for heating oil will increase. The company’s prediction is reasonable, however, only if other factors, such as population growth and weather patterns, remain constant over the next five years.