The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
“Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. The switch from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will attract older listeners and secure KNOW radio’s future.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The general manager of KNOW radio station bases his argument on several factors, including an increase in the number of listeners over the age of fifty and a decreased number of listeners in the eighteen to thirty-four age bracket. He assumes that there is such a migration away from rock music to news programming that KNOW should follow suit. He also assumes that rock-and-roll music will no longer be purchased, as fewer music stores are reporting a decrease in sales. He assumes that switching to a twenty-four hour news format will revitalize the station.
The manager of KNOW radio station has based his argument on anecdotal evidence only. It is possible that the number of listeners over fifty has increased, but it is also possible that the general manager simply has heard more elderly listeners in his town. It is also possible that the decrease in the number of listeners in the eighteen to thirty-four age bracket is purely coincidental. If the station manager is basing his assumptions on anecdotal data, then he may have missed the fact that the number of younger listeners has also decreased, perhaps because younger listeners are choosing to stream music over the Internet rather than purchase CDs. The decrease in the number of music stores purchasing CDs could also be the result of decreased consumer interest in CDs. After all, with the increase in streaming music and the availability of streaming music players, there is less of a need to purchase CDs.
The assumption that switching to a twenty-four hour news format will revitalize KNOW radio is flawed in several ways. First, news is competitive. If KNOW’s competitor, WGNA, also broadcasts a twenty-four hour news format, then WGNA will attract more listeners than KNOW. Second, few people listen to news programming twenty-four hours a day. Few people have jobs that require them to work all day, and many people have a hard time sleeping at night. It would be difficult for KNOW to compete with WGNA, or even with some other station, if they tried to broadcast news twenty-four hours a day. In addition, the news is constantly changing, with more than 100 news sources worldwide. It would be difficult for KNOW to have enough reporters and journalists to cover all those sources. Third, there is no guarantee that switching to a twenty-four hour news format will revitalize KNOW. News stations throughout the United States have failed to maintain listeners because they provide sensationalist news coverage, and such coverage does not appeal to many people. KNOW should first consider why its listeners are abandoning it. If it sells more rock-and-roll music, for example, then it would not be a good idea to switch to a twenty-four hour news format.
If the manager is basing his assumptions on actual data, then he has made a critical mistake. He should have consulted the audience survey of KNOW’s competitors before making his recommendation. A station manager who wants to increase the number of listeners should survey the station’s listeners to determine their preferences and their reasons for tuning in. If KNOW’s listeners prefer rock-and-roll music, then the station should continue to play such music. If KNOW’s listeners prefer news, then the station should announce that fact. If the station manager does not conduct a survey, then he is making a recommendation based solely on his assumptions. If the assumptions prove unwarranted, then the station can switch back to rock-and-roll music, or it could choose a format that appeals to its listeners.