The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.
“To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area.”
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The manager asserts listeners, but instead of providing evidence, she presents assumptions, which the audience must accept as fact. The manager has not provided any evidence for listeners moving here after retirement or for her assertion that local sales of recorded music have decreased, so her argument fails.
The manager also states that “talk radio” has recently increased, but she provides no statistics to support this claim. Furthermore, her assertion contradicts her assertion that listeners have moved to the area, so her argument appears to be based on conjecture.
The manager’s assertion that listeners are moving to the radio station after retirement seems plausible. The radio industry has snowballed in the past thirty years, and older adults are the largest demographic of listeners. Consequently, many stations are playing “oldies” or “classic rock,” which was the most popular form of music until recently. However, the manager must provide statistics regarding the number of listeners who moved to WWAC after retirement to compare apples to apples. If listeners are moving to WWAC in their eighties and nineties, it may be that their interest in music is not as strong as it was when they were in their twenties or thirties.
On the other hand, their financial situation may be better, and they may choose to listen to more music, even if it is less popular. While the number of older adults listening to WWAC may be growing, the manager has not provided any data to support her claim that listeners are moving to the area from other regions. Instead, she postulates that listeners are moving to WWAC from other parts of the country but do not offer evidence to support this assertion.’ The manager’s argument also fails because she provides no statistics to support the claim that recorded music sales in the area have decreased. She states that sales have been declining for several years, but she does not provide any basis for her assertion. Without data to support her claim that recorded music sales have decreased, the manager’s argument seems based on conjecture.
The manager’s assertion that listeners are drawn to talk and news radio rather than music also seems questionable. Talk and news radio has been growing in popularity for many years, and the number of stations offering this type of programming has increased. However, according to the manager’s logic, listeners attracted to talk and news radio would have begun listening to WWAC when the format was popular music, rather than when WWAC switched to talk and news. The manager’s theory implies that listeners who moved to WWAC after retirement are more interested in talk and news than popular music would have become listeners when WWAC was playing music. However, this premise is complicated to prove. The manager could have concluded that the music format was failing and changed the form to attract listeners. While talk and news radio have been growing in popularity, the manager presents no evidence that listeners are drawn to WWAC precisely because of this type of programming. Without statistics regarding the popularity of other types of radio in the area, it would be difficult to identify which kind of programming attracts listeners.
Furthermore, the manager’s assertion that listeners are attracted to news programming may contradict her assertion that listeners have moved to the area. If the manager is correct that listeners are moving to WWAC from other parts of the country, it may be that listeners who move to this region are more interested in local news than other news. Therefore, the manager’s assertion that listeners are drawn to news programming is inconsistent with her observation that listeners are moving to WWAC.
The manager’s argument also makes several assumptions, but the audience must assume these as facts rather than hypotheses that can be tested using evidence. The manager believes that listeners moved to WWAC after their retirement and that increased retirement rates will result in a continued decline in recorded music sales in the area. In addition, the manager assumes that listeners are moving away from music and that talk and news programming is more popular than music. While these two assertions may be correct, the manager has not provided evidence to support them, so the audience must assume them as facts.
Furthermore, the manager makes several assumptions about the popularity of news and talk radio, but the manager offers no evidence that supports these assumptions. Suppose the manager is correct that news programming is growing in popularity. In that case, she must provide data supporting her assertion, such as statistics regarding the number of listeners who listen to different types of radio. Suppose the manager is convinced that talk and news programming is more popular than music. In that case, she must provide data supporting her assertion, such as statistics regarding the number of listeners who listen to talk and news radio.
The manager presents several optimistic assumptions, but her assertions are based on conjecture. Without evidence to support her claims, the audience must assume that older adults are moving to WWAC after retirement, that recorded music sales are decreasing. That talk and news programming is more popular than music. Suppose the manager is unable to provide data to support her assertions. In that case, the audience must assume that the assumptions are incorrect and that listeners are drawn to music, not talk and news programming.