The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase — and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The argument presented rests mainly on the notion that the world is heading toward a future in which home energy consumption will decrease due to the adoption of more efficient appliances, increased home insulation, and new technologies. First, although the argument states that surveys indicate this, this premise is not explicitly stated, leaving the reader with the impression that the information is undisputed. In fact, the surveys in question were conducted by professional groups such as the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the EPA. Thus, their conclusions may be questioned, and the statement might require some further justification.
Second, the argument assumes that the demand for electricity will not increase in the future. This argument relies primarily on the recent increase in population, which combined with other factors, have significantly increased the demand for electricity. Thus, even if new technologies such as solar panels and heat pumps are widely adopted, the demand for electricity will likely increase. This assumption, however, is bolstered by the fact that power companies are planning to build new power plants. Furthermore, new generating plants will likely be needed to maintain current levels of electricity production. These assumptions might be questioned, given that many organizations, such as the World Energy Council, have predicted that the demand for electricity will rise significantly in the future due to population growth, increasing levels of affluence throughout the world, and also the growing use of electricity for industrial purposes.
In conclusion, although the argument presented appears reasonable at first glance, it fails to support its conclusions by relying solely on assumptions. First, the claim that surveys indicate that home energy consumption will decrease is not substantiated, and this claim should be supported by evidence. Second, the assumption that the demand for electricity will not increase in the future might prove to be unfounded. Thus, more convincing evidence will be necessary to support the argument.