The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Aurora, a company that sells organic milk (milk produced without the use of chemical additives):
“Sales of organic food products in this country have tripled over the past five years. If Aurora is to profit from this continuing trend, we must diversify and start selling products such as organic orange juice and organic eggs in addition to our regular product line. With the recent increase of articles in health magazines questioning the safety of milk and other food products, customers are even more likely to buy our line of organic products. And to help ensure our successful expansion, we should hire the founder of a chain of health-food stores to serve as our vice president of marketing.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
The president in this argument has devised a strategy for his company hoping to profit from the growing demand for organic foods. Although the company does not produce milk, it does produce organic orange juice and organic eggs. This reasoning seems to have no basis other than a desire to expand the company. Although sales are up, and the company is profitable, there is no proof that consumer demand for organic foods will continue to grow at the same pace. The president of Aurora should consider the possibility that some of today’s consumers may be willing to pay more for organic foods, but other companies or individuals may be offering or advertising cheaper or similar products. If price becomes an issue, customers may turn to these alternatives, and it is possible that sales of Aurora’s products will decline
The president has based his reasoning on the benefits of diversifying into other organic foods. The inference that customers will be more willing to buy organic products if the company offers them is questionable. The average consumer is likely aware of many of the allegations that have been made against milk and other food products. Consumers have become increasingly distrustful of the practices of corporations, and they may question the wisdom of spending their money on food that is produced in an environmentally friendly manner. Furthermore, the organic food industry is still in its infancy, and many consumers may not be aware that organic foods are healthier than nonorganic foods. Therefore, the assertion that consumers will be more likely to buy Aurora’s organic products is doubtful. Instead, the company might consider a strategy of maximizing sales of its existing products by advertising their health benefits. This could attract customers who already are purchasing organic foods, and it may also persuade new customers to purchase Aurora products
The president’s main premise is that the success of Aurora’s products would be enhanced by hiring the founder of a chain of health-food stores to serve as its vice president of marketing. Although this person may be skilled at marketing, it is unlikely that this person has much experience with organic foods. Furthermore, this person may have established a reputation for selling overpriced products. Therefore, the president should consider whether this person would be an asset to the company or merely an expensive distraction. If the vice president has little skill at marketing, or is unfamiliar with organic foods, there is little chance that this person would be able to persuade consumers to purchase Aurora’s products.