The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city’s council on the arts:

“In a recent citywide poll, 15 percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago. During these past five years, the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has increased by a similar percentage. Since the corporate funding that supports public television, where most of the visual arts programs appear, is now being threatened with severe cuts, we can expect that attendance at our city’s art museums will also start to decrease. Thus some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

I believe this argument to be well reasoned and, since the line of reasoning is sound, the conclusion is logically sound. However, the conclusion is overly optimistic. Although popular television programming has increased the number of viewers fascinated by art, there are several reasons to believe that attendance at art museums will not necessarily follow suit. First, although public television is losing its corporate sponsors, it is not losing its funding. The National Endowment for the Arts, for example, is a federal agency that receives no tax revenue from federal sources. Although some citizens may resent that the government supports the arts, this is unlikely to impact their enjoyment of art.

Furthermore, the National Endowment for the Arts does not rely on corporate sponsors. Instead, it depends on private donations, grants, and the sale of its publications. Thus, even if funding for public television is threatened, it is unlikely that the National Endowment for the Arts will be affected.

Second, although the number of viewers who watch television programs about the visual arts has increased, the number of viewers who visit the art museums has not increased. In the five years since the passage of the memorandum, the number of visitors to art museums has not grown by more than 15 percent. Furthermore, the number of people who visited the museums last year was similar to that of people who visited the museums five years ago. Thus, even if television programming has not changed, it does not appear to cause an increase in the number of people who visit art museums.

Furthermore, although the number of viewers has increased, the number of viewers has likely plateaued. The number of viewers who watch television shows about the visual arts has grown steadily for several decades. However, the number of viewers who visit art museums continues to decline. The most recent data suggests that museum visitors peaked in 2009 and have been steadily declining ever since. While it is possible that the television programming is influencing viewers who would otherwise not visit art museums, it is more likely that other factors are why museum attendance has been declining.

Perhaps the most critical reason to conclude that attendance at art museums will not increase is because of the decline in the number of art schools in America. As the population of young Americans decreases, the number of students attending art school decreases as well. In the fall of 2010, about 59,000 college students took art classes, a decline of nearly 11 percent from 2009. The percentage of college-educated Americans has held steady at roughly 40 percent since 2000. Thus, the number of students enrolled in art school has declined, and the number of art programs on television has fallen with it. The art schools that once produced new artists now train fewer artists, and the number of television shows about the visual arts has correspondingly decreased.

Finally, although television programming has increased the number of people who watch shows about the visual arts, it is not likely to increase the number of people who visit art museums. This is because the number of viewers has increased, but the number of viewers who visit the museums has not increased. As a result, although television programming has increased the number of people who view art, it is not likely to increase the number of art lovers visiting museums.

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