The following appeared in a memorandum written by the managing director of the Exeunt Theater Company:
“Now that we have moved to a larger theater, we can expect to increase our revenues from ticket sales. To further increase profits, we should start producing the plays that have been most successful when they were performed in our nation’s largest cities. In addition, we should hire the Adlib Theater Company’s director of fund-raising, since corporate contributions to Adlib have increased significantly over the three years that she has worked for Adlib.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
Assuming that the director’s statistics are accurate, the managing director seems to believe that producing more successful plays will lead to increased profits. While it is true that the plays that sell out in large metropolitan centers will make more money for theater companies, there are several flaws with this line of reasoning
First, it is important to note that the plays that the director refers to do not necessarily equate to plays that will be performed more often. The managing director has not provided any evidence of the plays’ popularity; their popularity may have been the result of other factors, such as the efforts of the theater company’s own marketing and publicity. Just because a play is popular in one city does not mean it is popular everywhere else. The company should focus its efforts on producing plays that appeal to a wide audience, rather than plays that appeal to a specific audience, since producing plays with narrow appeal will lead to a play’s failure in other markets
Second, the managing director is incorrect in assuming that the Adlib Theater Company’s director of fund-raising is responsible for increased corporate donations. If Adlib Theatre’s growth is due to increased corporate donations, then the company’s directors should know that increasing corporate donations is simply a matter of increasing the price of the tickets. Because most large metropolitan areas have deep pockets, Adlib Theatre can easily charge a higher price than the average ticket price elsewhere in the country. If it is producing plays that appeal to a broader audience, however, then the company should focus on producing plays that appeal to that audience, rather than on increasing ticket prices
Third, even if the managing director is right about increased corporate donations, it is not logical to assume that the Adlib Theater Company’s increased profits will result from producing more successful plays. The managing director’s logic assumes that the box office revenue will be based solely on the ticket sales, which would be misleading. If the managing director’s assumption is correct, then the company’s success will hinge on the performance of all of the plays that the company produces. However, the company’s future success does not hinge on the success of any one play. For example, if the managing director’s assumption is correct and Adlib Theatre produces the same number of plays each year, but the company’s revenue increases by only ten percent, then the company’s increased revenue is not due to the success of any one play. Instead, the increased revenue is the result of increased attendance. And increased attendance is the result of Adlib Theatre’s marketing efforts, not the success of Adlib Theatre’s plays
The managing director’s argument is not well reasoned. If the Managing Director’s company wants to increase its profits, then the company should focus on producing plays that appeal to a wider audience, rather than on producing plays that appeal to a specific audience.