The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company’s sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.

The writer makes an astute observation about the dominance of low-fat food products in the supermarket shelves today. However, his recommendation that investors ‘sell their shares in Old Dairy Industries’ is not based on fact. Why? The crux of the argument rests on a ‘for-profit,’ assumption, namely that Old Dairy’s competitors will abandon the high-cholesterol products in order to target the health-conscious, low-fat market. Taking this into consideration, we must first examine why Old Dairy’s competitors might choose to abandon their current products, followed by the question of whether or not Old Dairy’s products will diminish as a result.

The first reason a company might decide to abandon its current products in favor of the healthier alternative is because the company’s profits have declined. A business’ profit is based on its ability to attract and retain its customer base. If the company’s current customer base becomes disillusioned with its products, they may lose interest in purchasing them. If the company’s products are unpopular, they may begin to disappear from the shelves, and before long, the company’s stock will plummet. A demand for low-fat products may be an indicator that the company is losing customers to its competitors. Additionally, companies may turn to low-fat products in an effort to appeal to more health-conscious customers, but these customers may not be able to afford to buy their products. Instead of abandoning their products, these companies may simply lower their prices to remain competitive. Additionally, consumers may simply choose to buy more products made by other companies that offer healthier alternatives. Once a company succeeds in convincing consumers that its products offer healthier alternatives, the company’s stock may rise and Old Dairy’s competitors may find themselves at a disadvantage.

Old Dairy’s competitors may not abandon their high-cholesterol products, especially if their customers are largely health-conscious. If Old Dairy’s competitors are producing healthier products, their customers may be less likely to switch brands. If customers enjoy the taste of Old Dairy’s products, they may choose to purchase them even if they know that they contain more fat than other products. Additionally, if the price of Old Dairy’s products is comparable with those of its competitors, consumers will be more likely to purchase them.

The best strategy, then, for Old Dairy Industries’ stockholders may be to continue using the company’s products despite the market trend toward low-fat products. Although the company may suffer a drop in profits, its efforts to remain competitive may serve it well in the long run. If Old Dairy Industries’ competitors do not develop healthier alternatives, the company’s products will do well, and Old Dairy shareholders may profit from their holdings.

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