The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper:
“Because occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year, so did housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
While the argument above appears on the surface to be sound logic, there are several flaws that make it impossible to support the claim. The first and most obvious is the assumption that rising occupancy rates automatically translate into increases in housing revenues. This assumption is flawed because occupancy rates are affected by a number of factors other than student demand for housing. For example, for an apartment complex, rent prices may be based on market conditions, competitor pricing, and the quality of amenities offered. However, if the occupancy rate remains stagnant, the landlord must either lower the rent to attract more students, reduce amenities, or close down the property. All of these options require the landlord to cover the cost of selling or disposing of buildings and equipment, thus decreasing the housing revenues
Furthermore, the belief that decreasing the number of available housing units will increase occupancy rates is questionable. If the campus housing officials reduce the number of housing units available, students may be forced to live off-campus. However, this may not increase the student demand for housing since students would still have to pay rent for off-campus housing, and the off-campus housing may not offer the same amenities as campus housing. In fact, students may be forced to endure greater inconvenience while commuting, and the cost of commuting may increase, thus decreasing demand for on-campus housing. For these reasons, no amount of decreasing the number of housing units available will result in an increase in occupancy rates
Finally, the argument that housing officials should lower rents in order to increase demand assumes that students will remain in campus housing if they pay less for it. However, this reasoning ignores the fact that many factors, such as students’ preferences and financial resources, may convince students to live off-campus. For example, students may choose to live off-campus because it is easier for them to find housing close to school, or they may not be able to afford the high rents charged by campus housing. Therefore, even if the landlord lowers rents to entice students to live on campus, students may still choose to live off-campus
Furthermore, the argument assumes that housing officials will be able to predict accurately what effect decreasing the number of available housing units will have on occupancy rates. For example, what effect will reducing the number from twenty-five units to twenty units have on occupancy rates? A reduction from twenty-five to twenty may have little or no impact on occupancy rates. However, if the reduction is from fifty units to fifty-five units, it may result in more students choosing to live on campus, thus increasing the occupancy rate. Therefore, making the reduction from twenty-five to twenty units could cause the occupancy rate to increase, but making the reduction from fifty to fifty-five units could decrease it. Therefore, there is no way for the campus housing officials to accurately predict the effect that reducing the total number of available housing units will have on occupancy rates
The bottom line is that no matter how good an argument appears, if it lacks supporting evidence, it cannot be considered sound logic.