The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:

“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

The logic of this argument is faulty. The author seems to suggest that Varro’s record is superior, but he has not provided any evidence to support his claim. The reasoning of this argument could be strengthened if the author had provided some facts about the businesses that are opening or closing, or about the general economy in the area. As it stands, the argument cannot be supported

The author’s statement contains several inaccuracies. First, the author states that Varro’s record is superior, but he does not provide any basis for this assertion. He might, for example, have compared the number of new businesses that opened under Varro’s administration to the number of new businesses that opened under Montoya’s administration or the number of businesses that closed under Varro’s administration. He might have compared the unemployment rate under Varro to that of Montoya. He might not have made any comparison of Varro to Montoya at all, but simply stated that Montoya’s record is worse than Varro’s. As this argument appears to be a simple, uninformed, and poorly informed one, the author’s argument cannot be supported

Second, the author states that Varro ran a sound administration, but gives no evidence to support this claim. He might have stated that Varro reduced the crime rate, improved the schools, or lowered taxes. He might have stated that Varro did not increase taxes or that taxes remained the same; or that taxes were reduced. He might have stated that Varro did not increase the number of city employees or that the number of city employees was reduced. He might have stated that Varro did not raise taxes for businesses, or that taxes for business were lowered. He might have stated that Varro did not increase the crime rate, or that crime decreased. The statements the author makes about Varro’s record are vague and generalized, and do not provide support for his argument

Third, the author states that Varro was a proven administrator, but gives no basis for this claim. He might have stated that Varro had experience as a city councilman or mayor, or that Varro had experience running other city departments. He might have stated that Varro had experience running businesses, or that he had experience working in other companies. He might have stated that Varro had experience with finances, and that he had experience managing a budget. He might have stated that Varro had experience negotiating with other businesses and that businesses respected him. The statements the author makes about Varro’s record are not specific enough to provide any basis for his assertion

Finally, the author states that San Perdito would benefit from Varro’s return to the mayoral office, but gives no evidence to support this claim. He might have stated that Varro had experience dealing with certain problems that San Perdito is facing, such as crime, business, and unemployment. He might have stated that Varro would bring some new ideas to San Perdito, or that Varro’s experience would make him better able to deal with these issues. He might have stated that Varro would bring more business to San Perdito, or that Varro’s experience managing another city would foster better relationships with businesses. The statements the author makes about Varro’s record are not specific enough to provide support for his argument

The statement that the population of San Perdito has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased is not accurate. The author seems to be relying on census data, but census data does not distinguish between cities that have grown or declined. If the population of San Perdito has decreased, the census data would indicate that. If the number of businesses has increased, census data would also indicate that. It is therefore unlikely that San Perdito’s population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Further, the author seems to have made other assumptions about San Perdito. For example, he states that two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. This statement assumes that new businesses are opening at a steady rate. It is not likely that this is the case. Most new business owners require more capital than they have, so opening a business requires a significant financial investment. If new businesses are opening, it is likely that they are also being closed, and the author has not provided any data to support his claim. The author might also assume that new businesses are opening in areas that are experiencing economic growth. This assumption is also unlikely. Areas experiencing economic growth have a higher cost of living, which drives up the cost of goods. If new businesses are opening in these areas, it is likely that they are opening in areas with lower living costs

Finally, the argument does not provide any basis for its conclusion. The author states that Varro’s record is better than Montoya’s, but he gives no basis for this assertion. He might have explained that the number of new businesses that opened under Varro’s administration was higher than the number of new businesses that opened under Montoya’s administration. He might have stated that the unemployment rate under the Varro administration was lower than the unemployment rate under the Montoya administration. He might have stated that Varro improved San Perdito’s schools, or that Montoya did not. He might have stated that Varro reduced crime, or that Montoya did not. He might have stated that Varro did not raise taxes, or that taxes remained the same. He might have stated that Varro did not increase the number of San Perdito’s employees, or that

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