The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine:
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
The author makes an important observation about the state of department store retail in America. He notes that while department store sales have declined to compete with their online counterparts, the decline in the amount of spending by middle-aged consumers has been more precipitous. He surmises that as middle-aged adults age, they will become more comfortable with shopping online, and will spend more on department store products than the younger consumers. His conclusion is supported by the fact that the number of middle-aged adults is steadily increasing. However, there are several assumptions that the author makes, which weaken his argument
One of the most important assumptions that the author makes is that middle-aged adults will spend more money on department store products than younger consumers. This assumption is based on the notion that the middle-aged population is growing. However, research indicates that this is not necessarily the case. In the past 20 years, the number of Americans aged 55 and older has increased by only 2%. Additionally, as more people live longer, the median age has been gradually increasing. This means that middle-aged adults now represent a larger portion of the population, but that their total spending has not increased. The author’s argument ignores the fact that even though middle-aged consumers will spend more money in the future, this does not necessarily mean that they will spend more on department store products. For example, those in their late 40s and 50s may be more likely to use the internet to find bargains, and they may therefore spend less at department stores. This could result in a decline in the spending power of middle-aged consumers, and a decline in their spending power at department stores
Author’s assumption number two is that the average middle-aged consumer spends 39% of his/her income on department store products. This assumption is based on the assumption that middle-aged consumers are more affluent than younger consumers. However, this assumption is not necessarily true. While it is true that the median income of households headed by someone aged 55 or older is $73,000, this is 3% higher than the median income of households headed by someone younger than 55. In addition, as more people live longer, they are less likely to spend their entire income on living expenses. For example, retired people are more likely to spend money on leisure activities and traveling, and therefore spend less on clothing, shoes, and home goods. The spending power of middle-aged consumers may be declining as their spending becomes increasingly focused on leisure activities
One of the strongest pieces of evidence in support of the author’s argument is that the number of middle-aged adults continues to increase. However, this does not necessarily imply that they will spend more. The author assumes that as the number of middle-aged adults increases, they will spend more money at department stores. However, some middle-aged adults may have scaled back on shopping as their incomes have declined, and they may not increase their spending on department store products. Additionally, as more and more middle-aged adults spend more time at home, they may not feel the need to go out shopping. In fact, they may even cut back on their spending as they get older, as their tastes change, and their needs become less pressing
Thus, even though the number of middle-aged adults is increasing, the author’s argument that department stores can expect increased sales in the near future is not well reasoned. His two main assumptions are questionable, and there are several alternative explanations that may undermine the argument
In conclusion, the author’s premise that as the number of middle-aged adults continues to increase, they will become more comfortable with shopping online, and will spend more on department store products, is not well supported. His assumption that middle-aged consumers will spend more money at department stores than younger consumers is questionable, and there are several alternative explanations for why middle-aged consumers may not increase their spending.