The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
“Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems.”
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Omni University offers degree programs via the Internet, and the university president believes that the program will eventually help the university overcome its budget problems.
With the university president’s prediction, there are several points to consider.
Omni University offers two online degree programs: a Master of Business Administration and a Bachelor of Fine Arts. Since Omni University is a private institution, it is not required to disclose tuition prices. However, the Master of Business Administration program costs $55,000 for the entire course, while the Bachelor of Fine Arts program costs approximately $15,000. These amounts are at least 5 to 10 times higher than the tuition prices at Humana University, which range from $5,000 to $11,000. However, students at the for-profit Omni University may pay much less in tuition because their incomes are considerably higher. For example, the average salary of Omni University graduates is $78,000 per year, while the average household income of graduates at Humana University is approximately $38,000 per year. Thus, private institutions like Omni University can afford to provide lower tuition prices. Since students at the for-profit Omni University can pay their tuition with their income, they can quickly pay off the expensive loans that come with college degrees.
One of the main arguments against this prediction is that Omni University is a private institution, and tuition prices may not be indicative of the actual costs of running the university. For example, while the university president’s prediction seems reasonable on its face, the university may not be spending as much on dormitories and classrooms as is indicated by its tuition prices. The university may be operating under the assumption that students will pay for their room and board, while in reality many students receive financial aid. Also, despite the increase in enrollment at Omni University, the university may have spent more money on advertising, or it may be spending more money on administrative overhead than is indicated by the tuition prices. Thus, even though the university may be spending less money on classrooms and dormitories, the true cost to the university may be much higher than the tuition prices suggest.
Another concern with this prediction is that while the number of students enrolled in online degree programs at Omni has increased, the total number of students enrolled in degree programs at Humana University has not increased. The students who have enrolled in online degree programs at Omni may have come from other universities, or they may come from other colleges within the university. Students typically take one to three semesters off work to complete their degrees, so the total number of students enrolled at Omni University may be the same as the total number of students enrolled at Humana University. This means that while the number of students enrolled in online degree programs at Omni has increased, the total number of students at the university has not increased.
Also, while enrollment has increased at Omni University, enrollment has decreased at Humana University. The decrease in enrollment at Humana University may be because the university has decided to focus its resources on online degree programs, while Omni University has chosen to provide traditional degree programs. While online degree programs may be less expensive to operate, many students are uncomfortable with the idea of learning online. In addition, if the online degree programs offered by Omni University are of high quality, then students may abandon the traditional degree programs offered at Humana University to attend Omni University. Thus, while the number of students enrolled in online degree programs has increased, the total number of students at the university has not increased, and the amount of money spent on operating the university has increased.
Finally, the university president’s prediction assumes that the online courses offered by Omni University will increase enrollment at the university and that the creation of online degree programs will solve the university’s financial problems. While enrollment may increase, this is unlikely. Many of the students who enroll in online courses at Omni University come from other universities, and new students may enroll in online degree programs at other universities, too. Thus, while there may be an increase in the number of students enrolled, the total number of students may not increase. Since online degree programs are cheaper to operate, enrollment may increase, but money may not be saved. Also, while online degree programs may be cheaper to operate, many students are not comfortable with them. For example, students may not like the idea of taking online courses, or they may not feel like they can interact with professors and fellow students online. Thus, while online degree programs may help the university increase its enrollment, they are unlikely to help alleviate its financial problems.
The following questions would need to be answered by Humana University before the university president’s prediction could be evaluated.
First, the university president needs to provide documentation that the number of students enrolled in online degree programs at Omni University has increased. If the number of students enrolled in online degree programs has increased, then the creation of online degree programs may help increase enrollment at the university. For example, if the university president can provide evidence that the number of students enrolled in online degree programs at Omni University has increased from 1,000 students to 5,000 students, then it is likely that the increase in enrollment will be more significant than the increase in online degree programs. If, however, the number of students enrolled in online degree programs at Omni University has remained the same, then the creation of online degree programs is unlikely to increase enrollment significantly.
Second, while the number of students attending online degree programs at Omni has increased, the total number of students enrolled at Omni University has not increased. Thus, while there may be an increase in enrollment, the total number of students may not increase. If the number of students attending online degree programs at Omni has increased from 1,000 students to 5,000 students, then it is likely that the total number of students has increased.