The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell’s economy — and generate additional tax revenues — is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The mayor’s recommendation to build a municipal golf course and resort hotel in Hopewell, New Jersey, stems from a desire to improve the town’s economy and increase revenues. The stated assumptions appear to be reasonable, so let’s examine them more closely. If Ocean View, New Jersey, can build a municipal golf course and resort hotel successfully, then Hopewell, New Jersey, should be able to do the same.
The town’s assumption that building a golf course and resort hotel will increase tourism appears to be supported by Ocean View’s increased tax revenues. The revenues the town receives from the resort hotel, golf club, and restaurant are presumably enough to justify the operating expenses. The additional taxes that Ocean View has levied on businesses in the area are most likely the new tourists drawn to the town by the new facilities. Thus, if Ocean View’s municipal golf course and resort hotel can successfully draw tourists, then Hopewell’s municipal golf course and resort hotel should be able to do the same. The stated assumption that the Ocean View facility was successful in attracting tourists is also likely correct. According to the mayor, Ocean View’s municipal golf course and resort hotel has increased tourism by 30 percent. A 30 percent increase in tourism would obviously cause Ocean View’s revenues to increase. Therefore, if Ocean View’s golf course and resort hotel can attract tourists, then Hopewell’s golf course and resort hotel should be able to attract tourists as well.
The mayor’s suggestion that building a golf course and resort hotel will improve Hopewell’s economy is predicated on the assumption that tourists will spend money on Hopewell. If Ocean View can attract tourists to the town, then it is likely that Hopewell will benefit from the tourists’ spending. However, if this does not occur, new tourists will not come to Hopewell. If Ocean View’s municipal golf course and resort hotel fails to attract tourists, then Hopewell will be unable to generate any additional revenues. Therefore, if the Ocean View facility does not succeed in attracting tourists, then Hopewell’s economy will be negatively impacted.
The mayor’s recommendation to build a municipal golf course and resort hotel in Hopewell, New Jersey, is also predicated on the assumption that Ocean View’s golf course and resort hotel was successful in attracting tourists. If the Ocean View facility was not successful, then Hopewell’s economy will be negatively impacted. If a municipal golf course and resort hotel fails to attract tourists, then Hopewell’s economy will be negatively impacted. Therefore, the mayor’s recommendation to build a municipal golf course and resort hotel in Hopewell, New Jersey, is flawed. Even if Ocean View can build a municipal golf course and resort hotel successfully, there is no guarantee that Hopewell will be able to do the same.